In thinking through the 2016 Presidential election, I realized that it is very likely that the next President will either be Donald Trump or whoever wins the Democratic nomination. If you see a problem with my logic, please let me know. But it seems to me that most of the election scenarios have a similar outcome – Trump or a Democrat in the White House in 2017. Let’s examine each case independently:
1 – Trump wins the Republican Nomination
In this case, the prediction comes true. No further discussion needed.
2 – Trump loses the nomination and goes Third Party
This would almost certainly result in a win for the Democrat, even if it is Joe Biden. I guess our best hope in that case is that Bernie Sanders will lose and HE will decide to run as a third party candidate also. At least then it will be a fair fight. But most probably this will simply split the Republican vote.
3 – Trump loses the nomination and doesn’t go Third Party
While Republicans currently see this as the best scenario, I don’t think it will result in a win for the Republican. I have met a number of Trump supporters, and I believe unless he is the nominee we will have a result similar to 2012. Millions of his supporters will simply refuse to vote, giving the victory to the Democrat. The establishment is pushing Bush, and usually the establishment wins. But if Bush wins the primary he has little chance of winning the General. The Republican Party didn’t learn any lessons from McCain and Romney. NOTE: Some people hope that in this case Trump would be put on the ticket as the VP. But can you really see Trump agreeing to second place?
4 – Trump falls in the polls before the primary and decides to drop out
This is one of the scenarios which could save the election for a Republican. I get the impression that Trump can’t stand to be anywhere but first place. It is possible that if he finds him second, third or even fourth in the polls he announces that he was just running to get people talking about the issues and advance the debate, and never wanted the job of President and wouldn’t take it if it was forced on him. He is the best at what he does, making money, and he needs to get back to his business. However I still fear that many of his supporters would feel abandoned and would sit out the General Election, putting a Democrat in the office.
Certainly there are other combinations, but I am having trouble coming up with them. If you think of some ideas, please post them below.