UPDATE 6/30/20 – Another week of the data presented by the CDC (a sample of 10% of the population) shows yet another week of decline in hospitalizations.  The chart (at the end of this article and the featured image) have been updated.

The overwhelming message you hear every day is that the number of COVID-19 cases are increasing.  This is true, but it is very, very, misleading.  And not really that important.

The number we should be watching is the number of hospitalizations, but that data is more difficult to find.  Why?  Well, it shows exactly the opposite story – that the number of people being hospitalized with COVID-19 has been declining since the middle of April.

We have known for some time that there can be mild cases of the virus, as well as many cases that are asymptomatic.  The push to test as many people as possible has resulted in the discovery of more members of the general population who have the virus.  But the percent of people testing positive, as shown below, continues to decline.

As we test more, the number of people testing positive continues to decline.

What about people showing up at Emergency Rooms?  When people are completely overwhelmed by the virus they often end up in an ER.  The fear was that this wave of sick people would overload our systems.  What does the data show?  That the percentage of visits to Emergency Rooms in the US of patients with COVID-19 symptoms has been declining since about the beginning of April as well.

COVID symptoms showing up at Emergency Rooms continues to decline.

The Real Story – The number of Hospitalizations

Using the CDC’s own numbers it is obvious that the number of Laboratory Confirmed Hospitalizations as a result of COVID-19 has been on a steady and consistent decline since the middle of April:

Is the pandemic over?  No.  But have we passed the worst part?  The data suggests that we have.  Too bad the media and the politicians don’t want you to discover this for yourself.

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