In thinking through the 2016 Presidential election, I realized that it is very likely that the next President will either be Donald Trump or whoever wins the Democratic nomination. If you see a problem with my logic, please let me know. But it seems to me that most of the election scenarios have a similar outcome – Trump or a Democrat in the White House in 2017. Let’s examine each case independently:
1 – Trump wins the Republican Nomination
In this case, the prediction comes true. No further discussion needed.
2 – Trump loses the nomination and goes Third Party
This would almost certainly result in a win for the Democrat, even if it is Joe Biden. I guess our best hope in that case is that Bernie Sanders will lose and HE will decide to run as a third party candidate also. At least then it will be a fair fight. But most probably this will simply split the Republican vote.
3 – Trump loses the nomination and doesn’t go Third Party
While Republicans currently see this as the best scenario, I don’t think it will result in a win for the Republican. I have met a number of Trump supporters, and I believe unless he is the nominee we will have a result similar to 2012. Millions of his supporters will simply refuse to vote, giving the victory to the Democrat. The establishment is pushing Bush, and usually the establishment wins. But if Bush wins the primary he has little chance of winning the General. The Republican Party didn’t learn any lessons from McCain and Romney. NOTE: Some people hope that in this case Trump would be put on the ticket as the VP. But can you really see Trump agreeing to second place?
4 – Trump falls in the polls before the primary and decides to drop out
This is one of the scenarios which could save the election for a Republican. I get the impression that Trump can’t stand to be anywhere but first place. It is possible that if he finds him second, third or even fourth in the polls he announces that he was just running to get people talking about the issues and advance the debate, and never wanted the job of President and wouldn’t take it if it was forced on him. He is the best at what he does, making money, and he needs to get back to his business. However I still fear that many of his supporters would feel abandoned and would sit out the General Election, putting a Democrat in the office.
Certainly there are other combinations, but I am having trouble coming up with them. If you think of some ideas, please post them below.
An interesting prediction of the future based primarily on the politics. I suggest another factor is present based on the issues.
Conservative Review gives the 13 Republican candidates views on 11 issues. I compiled the results on a Google spread sheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wxbEg53p9VvzICAIrHmRvRDz_Yy7Ohl8R48K8xtdf5A/edit#gid=0
The list below are the seven conservatives.
Cruz 10
Jindall 6
Paul 6
Rubio 6
Trump 1
Carson 1
Kasich 1
I prefer the top four but would vote for the bottom 3. If Santorum, Bush, Huckabee, Christie, Fiorina, or Graham is the nominee, I and likely others will probably vote 3rd party.
Thanks, Bert Loftman
Thank you for the ranking. Would you like to ‘dress it up’ a little and turn it into an article we could post?
Will do. What format and where do I send it?
If you can get something that looks good in Microsoft Word that would be great. No need to spend too much time formatting it, I just think it is interesting and would be good to post on the site.
I disagree totally: 2 = Trump loses the nomination and goes Third Party..
Here is what we already know:
It looks like Hillary will surely be the Democrat Candidate.
That means all of the Sanders voters will be left out in the cold and they sure want to be heard. They damn sure will not vote for Hillary or cross-over to vote for any other GOP Candidate.
Trump just tells everyone this is getting even time and invites them all to join his new “Trump Labor Party”. WOW that would be the end to all of these Traitors for sure.
So, I think if Trump goes third party he would get almost all of the Sanders voters and the majority of the GOP voters will follow him to his new “Trump Labor Party”. That would nearly end both parties in one fall-swoop. Then of course he must get some patriots to run against the present Dem & Rep Candidates in the House and Senate. Then all of these Traitors would be sweep out of office. Then all the Good Guys would be elected on Trump coat-tails because they would vote for all members running under this new “Trump Labor Party” banter.
To understand this you must spend many hours reading all the web comments. Then you will see how damn angry all of the workers in both parties in America really are. They are really pissed-off.
Let’s assume Hillary will be left with 60% of the Democratic voters for Hillary and the GOP will have less than 50% of voters for the Traitors.
So let’s assume if Trump draws at least 40% of the Democrats and draws better than half of the GOP voters. This looks like to me it’s a NO BRAINER (40% + 50% = almost 90% of all the voters will join Trump’s Labor Party). All Trump has to do is beat 60% in either party to win the Presidency.
So, 90% will surely beat 60% or 50%. Trump will absolutely win the Presidency with a Plurality Vote. Bill Clinton Won the 1990 Presidential Election with about 38% Plurality votes. This time the Workers are much smarter than in 1990 because they have about 94 million workers out of a job. And losing more jobs every day.
But, Trump must go with a third party called “Trump Labor Party” because there will be more of a dawn for Sanders voters to change to a third party than to cross-over to the GOP party. I am sure they still have BAD FEELING about the GOP like we all do over the years. This way everyone will automatically know who the Good Guys from the Bad Guys. If we dump all of them at the same time then we will know we got the right ones. Of course there is still a few Good Guys left. But a very damn few.
If Trump goes third party all of his GOP followers will change to Trumps new third party called “Trumps Labor Party”. We already know Trump can beat any GOP candidate they put up because Trump has already shown that the majority of the GOP voters picked him. So, we know Trump has more than half of the GOP base voters. Also, the GOP can’t gang up on Trump like they did in OHIO (he had to beat both Marco and KASICH combined votes).
I say Let’s Do it..
My biggest problem with your analysis is the statement that Trump can beat any GOP candidate. I believe Trump is getting as many votes as he can (usually less than 50%), which means in a head to head race with Cruz he will lose.